Israel / Lebanon

[mrph]

Now, I know many people reading this already have well-established views on the Middle East situation. And I know that there's a wide range of opinions out there. So I'm not going to try to revisit the rights and wrongs of the whole mess. However, having said that...

I can't help feeling that Olmert's been suckered. He's at the head of a new government and he had to show he was tough on security. Hezbollah seem to have known that, too.

Soldiers are kidnapped, Israel retaliates. Which means striking at Lebanon, as Hezbollah's mostly based there.

We're now up to 12 Israeli dead and up to 200 Lebanese dead, according to the BBC. Still no sign of the captured soldiers. Which means that Olmert's written himself into a corner - now that he's committed so much force and things have escalated, he can't just stop without a good reason (such as recovering those two hostages, which doesn't seem likely to happen soon...).

It's worth noting that Hezbollah has now proved that it can easily hit Haifa with rockets. Which seems to have been a shock to Israel. They've obviously had the capability to do this for a while - they just chose not to, until now.

And every bomb that falls on Lebanon seems to push the Lebanese public - Christian and Muslim - further away from any sympathy with Israel's position. Even the elements that previously condemned Hezbollah now seem frustrated and furious...

Hezbollah have obviously been planning elements of this for a while. They arranged a suitable provocation - and I suspect Israel reacted more-or-less as expected. Despite the military imbalance, that doesn't put Israel in the best position, does it?

Comments

Fighting fire with petrol.

[zotz]

Hitting an Israeli warship has also been a bit of a coup, and Hezbollah are apparently also believed to have rockets that can reach well south of Haifa. I've read in at least a couple of places that Nasrallah, should he survive, could have more respect across the Arab world than anyone since Nasser. Cheery prospect.

I can't see them releasing the Israeli soldiers either. There's just nothing in it for them.

[zarbi.livejournal.com]

This is one of those awful situations in which one can see no good outcome. Israel (as usual) vastly over-reacts, as they have always done, making things worse. On the other hand, they are surrounded by governments who are either too weak to react against terrorist organisations, or who were voted in with a mandate to destroy Israel. There seems no way out. On the other hand, many other situation seemed impossible to solve decades ago - South Africa, and Northern Ireland for example, and yet, we ended up with peace. I guess the message is that even when things seem entrenched and impossible, there is still hope.

[lougarry.livejournal.com]

oh please, dont get me started on South africa. Nothing has changed and the world isn't interested in it anymore. More people die there now than they did over 11 years ago due to violence. The government is and wont/can't fulfil promises that got them elected - like the basics of shelter and warmth and electricity. If South africa went the way of Zimbabwe I will not be surprised.

[lougarry.livejournal.com]

Rockets have now gone 6 miles south of haifa - bbc news this morning. Ithink the Israelies have bitten off more than they can chew this time and it's gotten the world in a pretty serious predicament
:(

Heh

[kingginger.livejournal.com]

This situation has me seriously riled.

I want to stick something on my own LJ about it...

Why the hell do the US and Israel get away with 69'ing each other all the time?

Its a joke that Israel is getting away with killing the better part of 200 civilians in a "war" against an enemy it seems they can't put a finger on.

And the fact that the US is veto'ing any sort of UN sanctions... Argh!

The UN needs to get in there to sort it out before Israel knocks Lebanon back into the 60's or 70's...

Re: Heh

[mister-jack.livejournal.com]

Why the hell do the US and Israel get away with 69'ing each other all the time?

Because the US is the most powerful nation on earth and Israel is the most powerful nation in the region. Realistically, who is going to stop them?

Its a joke that Israel is getting away with killing the better part of 200 civilians in a "war" against an enemy it seems they can't put a finger on.

Given that we participated in the war in Iraq that has cost the lives of over 100,000 civilians, who are we to protest?

Israel can quite legitimately claim it is only following the example we set. I, for one, find that rather distasteful.

Meanwhile the setup of the UN prevents it from being in any way effective as a global police organisation. Being neither democratic nor single-minded robs it of the advantages of both arrangements.

[deeply-spurious.livejournal.com]

Yes I think you're pretty much spot on on all counts... enormously depressing all round.