Watch This Space

[mrph]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/163.stm

The BBC's election coverage includes a very useful postcode search. This is their link for the Coventry North East seat - no results yet, of course, but it'll be updated when results come in.

Let's be honest here: it'll be Bob again. Barring miracles, nobody's going to break that 16000 majority. But maybe, just maybe, he'll lose a decently sized chunk of it this time. And hopefully the Conservatives are no longer going to be in a clear second place...

Comments

[mrph.livejournal.com]

...but if the Tories aren't gaining from Labour (and looking at the early results there wasn't much evidence of that, either - they were usually within 1% of their previous figure) where's their boost coming from?

However you rearrange the numbers, a vote here for the Lib Dems isn't going to let the Conservatives in unless the Tories manage to acquire another 10-15% of the vote from somewhere.

Without that, they're never going to have a majority in this constituency - the maths just won't allow it, even if you sum the Labour & Lib Dem vote then spread it evenly (which is the worst case) between those two parties - that would still give Labour and Lib Dem 36% of the vote each (and the Tories are currently on 19%).