Gratuitous politics

[mrph]

It's 2005. We're going to have an election at some point reasonably soon. And Blair's going to win, isn't he?

So what are you going to do about it? When Bush was re-elected we made "Jesusland" jokes, mocked middle America and hoped that Dubya had another pretzel accident before he could do yet more damage...

But Kerry still got 48% of the vote. And pretty much every American LJer I know made posts urging people to vote 'cos otherwise they'd have no right to bitch if the wrong candidate got elected.

Now it's our turn. Blair will almost certainly be re-elected - the opposition is in a poor state to fight an election.

If he's elected with another vast majority and silence/apathy from all of us, then when the rest of the world starts mocking us mercilessly they'll be more than entitled.

Blair, of course, will take another healthy win as evidence that he's Doing The Right Things, and will then carry on doing more of them.

At least if he scrapes in with a small majority the opposition will be able to restrain him a little - and his own party may start more actively pressuring him to step down within the next two or three years, well before the next election.

Which works for me.

Comments

[zarbi.livejournal.com]

I have to agree. I would like the Lib Dems to get in, but until they become the opposition, I would vote actively for Labour to prevent any chance of the Tories returning to power. I think that trying to deliberately arrange for a lower majority for Labour is potentially dangerous: after all, the Tories have supported all the worst policies of Labour - the thought of Howard at No 10 is truly awful.

[mhw.livejournal.com]

Indeed. It concerns me that many people are too young to remember, and would probably refuse to credit, how things were under Thatcher; it really makes me want to shake roughly anyone of their age who says "anyone but Labour".

I'll consider voting Liberal Democrat when they have some policies to discuss. Until then — TIN(C)A.

[mrph.livejournal.com]

Oh, I remember. I just refuse to believe that this is the best we get. We should put up with all the stupid things he's done, just because he's the lesser evil?

Bollocks to that. How are those things going to get fixed if we don't make any noise about them?

A lot of things are, indeed, much better. But we still have plans for ID cards, we have a war we didn't want - and, arguably, didn't need - sold to us on a mix of lies and ever-changing motives, we have imprisonment without trial in Belmarsh (and the government doing all they can to ignore judgements saying it's not legal..).

Meanwhile, Thatcher's legacy is about as relevant and healthy as she is - except for the "law and order" aspects of it which Labour have quietly usurped. Most of those battles are, slowly, being won. That may change, but it's unlikely to be suddenly reversed.

I'm certainly not saying "anyone but Labour" - if I was, I wouldn't have joined the Lib Dems. What I am saying is that Labour is quietly sinking into the mire and needs a good kick. I'd like a Lib Dem government or, failing that, a left-wing Labour government that actually remembers what they used to stand for...

[mhw.livejournal.com]

When you've finished shooting down the argument that I didn't make...

I'd like a Lib Dem government or, failing that, a left-wing Labour government that actually remembers what they used to stand for...

And while we're wishing for that, I'd like a small box of crystallised fruits. At least that's currently feasible.

[mrph.livejournal.com]

*sigh* Well, yes. But then I didn't say "anyone but Labour" either, did I?

I can understand why zarbi said "I would like the Lib Dems to get in, but until they become the opposition, I would vote actively for Labour to prevent any chance of the Tories returning to power", and why you agreed... but if nobody votes for the Lib Dems until they become the official opposition, just how will they become the official opposition?

Maybe I'm not seeing this clearly, but I don't see any real risk of a Conservative government in the next election. They're still something of a shambles, and Howard's failed to rebuild their credibility.

I simply don't believe that, given that situation, a Conservative win is really any more likely than a Lib Dem win. So why worry so much about the former but dismiss the latter?

[mhw.livejournal.com]

No, you didn't, and as far as I can tell I didn't say that you had; which is what rather perplexed me in your response.

The answer to your question is, at least to me, transparently simple: we've had Tory governments; we know what they did, and no doubt are still entirely capable of doing. Howard's been Thatcher's buddy for years and years, remember. That's more than enough good reason not to want them in power ever again. However, I don't believe in the political awareness of the electorate sufficiently to trust them not to elect them again, I'm afraid.

Why won't people vote Lib Dem? Two reasons. The first is that those of us who remember who they were beforehand know that they consist of 1) a handful of perennially unelectable Liberals and 2) preBlairite splitters who ran away from the Labour party to become the SDP because they didn't like the taste of Socialism. People have long memories, and I suspect that it'll take the passing of a generation before many people will forgive them their origins. The second is that in a Catch-22 kind of setup, they haven't been elected, so nobody knows what they'd be like if they were elected, and therefore nobody trusts them enough to elect them. Anyone who claims that a party's behaviour in office must in any way resemble their manifesto will be met with a short laugh from me.

So what choice do we have?

1) Tories. Never, never again.
2) Lib Dems. Unproven and I think currently unprovable. I have a nasty suspicion they'd sell themselves to anyone for a lick of power, but that's politicians for you.
3) Labour. The least worst of a bad, bad bunch. We've got some good out of them, at least.
4) The Rest. Not an issue unless you don't live in England.

I'm sorry, but I can't see a more optimistic outlook than that.

[zarbi.livejournal.com]

we've had Tory governments; we know what they did, and no doubt are still entirely capable of doing. Howard's been Thatcher's buddy for years and years, remember. That's more than enough good reason not to want them in power ever again. However, I don't believe in the political awareness of the electorate sufficiently to trust them not to elect them again, I'm afraid.

Perfectly expressed. My view exactly. Nearly 1/3 of the electorate still want a Tory government. That scares me.

[mrph.livejournal.com]

Why won't people vote Lib Dem? Two reasons. The first is that those of us who remember who they were beforehand know that they consist of 1) a handful of perennially unelectable Liberals and 2) preBlairite splitters who ran away from the Labour party to become the SDP because they didn't like the taste of Socialism. People have long memories, and I suspect that it'll take the passing of a generation before many people will forgive them their origins.

Fair comment. But I think that shift is already happening, and quite rapidly - all those who don't remember life under Thatcher don't really know who the Lib Dems were in those days, either.

It's now been 24 years since the SDP formed, 17 years since they became the Liberal Democrats... and putting memory aside for a second, how many of their current MPs actually come from those preBlairite splitters or unelectable Liberals?

[mhw.livejournal.com]

all those who don't remember life under Thatcher don't really know who the Lib Dems were in those days, either.

True enough. It's a long time since I've been able to wear my "Join the Liberals or we'll shoot your dog" badge and expect to get a laugh out of it.

Why is it that one's not allowed to drive a car, a quite dangerous object, until one's satisfied examiners that one's not likely to be a public menace with it, whereas merely by turning eighteen one's allowed to use a vote, which should by rights be an even more dangerous object, without having to be able to do more than pick up a pencil?

Sod cricket tests, I want a political competence test. I really don't trust the competence of my fellow voters.

how many of their current MPs actually come from those preBlairite splitters or unelectable Liberals?

Precious few, I should think; softfruit could almost certainly tell you. Is it really 24 years, though? I remember it all so well... trails off into senile ramblings about Asquith and Lloyd George

[zarbi.livejournal.com]

Oh, I remember. I just refuse to believe that this is the best we get. We should put up with all the stupid things he's done, just because he's the lesser evil?

Bollocks to that. How are those things going to get fixed if we don't make any noise about them?

I have a huge amount of sympathy with this point of view! But I guess I just don't consider it the lesser 'evil'. I think devolution, an (eventual) hunting ban, a minimum wage, equality of age of consent, adoption of human rights into UK law, same-sex partnership rights, improved maternity pay and rights, and many other things are positively good things that we would never have had under the Tories. This government has done some bad things - I shall never understand their bizarre willingness to go along with Bush, but to say they are the lesser evil, is, I think, to neglect a huge amount of good that has been done.

Meanwhile, Thatcher's legacy is about as relevant and healthy as she is - except for the "law and order" aspects of it which Labour have quietly usurped.

I guess because I lived through it, I'm not so certain: after all, Howard was a Thatcherite! I believe there is a still a huge festering pool of xenophobia, anti-feminism and homophobia in the Tory party.

Perhaps in 5-10 years, when the Tories have finally either changed beyond recognition or become the third party, I might want to risk a gamble of removing Labour.

Anyway, just my view. I have a lot of respect for yours.