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Israel / Lebanon
Jul. 17th, 2006 11:57 pmNow, I know many people reading this already have well-established views on the Middle East situation. And I know that there's a wide range of opinions out there. So I'm not going to try to revisit the rights and wrongs of the whole mess. However, having said that...
I can't help feeling that Olmert's been suckered. He's at the head of a new government and he had to show he was tough on security. Hezbollah seem to have known that, too.
Soldiers are kidnapped, Israel retaliates. Which means striking at Lebanon, as Hezbollah's mostly based there.
We're now up to 12 Israeli dead and up to 200 Lebanese dead, according to the BBC. Still no sign of the captured soldiers. Which means that Olmert's written himself into a corner - now that he's committed so much force and things have escalated, he can't just stop without a good reason (such as recovering those two hostages, which doesn't seem likely to happen soon...).
It's worth noting that Hezbollah has now proved that it can easily hit Haifa with rockets. Which seems to have been a shock to Israel. They've obviously had the capability to do this for a while - they just chose not to, until now.
And every bomb that falls on Lebanon seems to push the Lebanese public - Christian and Muslim - further away from any sympathy with Israel's position. Even the elements that previously condemned Hezbollah now seem frustrated and furious...
Hezbollah have obviously been planning elements of this for a while. They arranged a suitable provocation - and I suspect Israel reacted more-or-less as expected. Despite the military imbalance, that doesn't put Israel in the best position, does it?
I can't help feeling that Olmert's been suckered. He's at the head of a new government and he had to show he was tough on security. Hezbollah seem to have known that, too.
Soldiers are kidnapped, Israel retaliates. Which means striking at Lebanon, as Hezbollah's mostly based there.
We're now up to 12 Israeli dead and up to 200 Lebanese dead, according to the BBC. Still no sign of the captured soldiers. Which means that Olmert's written himself into a corner - now that he's committed so much force and things have escalated, he can't just stop without a good reason (such as recovering those two hostages, which doesn't seem likely to happen soon...).
It's worth noting that Hezbollah has now proved that it can easily hit Haifa with rockets. Which seems to have been a shock to Israel. They've obviously had the capability to do this for a while - they just chose not to, until now.
And every bomb that falls on Lebanon seems to push the Lebanese public - Christian and Muslim - further away from any sympathy with Israel's position. Even the elements that previously condemned Hezbollah now seem frustrated and furious...
Hezbollah have obviously been planning elements of this for a while. They arranged a suitable provocation - and I suspect Israel reacted more-or-less as expected. Despite the military imbalance, that doesn't put Israel in the best position, does it?
